Childcare enrollment isn't steady — it breathes with the calendar. New families start in waves after the new year and at the start of the school year, and every late summer a cohort of pre-K children graduates to Kindergarten in a single, predictable cliff. This dashboard forecasts enrollment month over month so the operator sees the dip coming and books tours to backfill it before the seats empty, instead of reacting in September.
What this dashboard answers
What's our net enrollment movement each month — how many starts, how many withdrawals, and where does the line end up? How big is the August/September graduation outflow, and which sites and age groups feel it most? The overview tracks new enrollments against withdrawals by month and draws the projected month-end line so the late-summer dip is visible months ahead. A by-site, by-age-group view shows where the cliff lands and where new starts are recovering it.
The metrics that matter
Net enrollment change is the pulse — positive means the center is filling faster than it's emptying. Graduation outflow is the seasonal shock you can plan around because it's known in advance: the pre-K children leaving for Kindergarten are on your roster today. Net growth rate normalizes the change for center size so a small site and a large one can be compared. Read them together and the projection becomes a staffing and marketing plan, not just a number.
Why the data is trapped
Start dates and withdrawal dates live in the enrollment record inside Procare, Brightwheel, or HiMama/Lillio, but the systems show today's roster, not a forward projection across sites. Building the month-over-month bridge — starting enrollment, plus new, minus withdrawals and graduations, equals projected end — means exporting dated records and rebuilding the arithmetic in a spreadsheet every month. The seasonal graduation cliff, the single most predictable event in the childcare year, is exactly what a static roster export hides.
How to read it
Watch the projected month-end line first — the late-summer dip is the planning event. If new enrollments aren't rising into August, the fall will open under-filled, which is a marketing-spend signal now, not in September. Use the by-site matrix to see which centers absorb the graduation cliff worst, and the age-group split to confirm it's the pre-K rooms emptying. The sample here uses fully synthetic, anonymized data, so there are no real children or start dates in what you explore.
Metrics it tracks
| Metric | What it means |
|---|---|
| New Enrollments | Children with a start date in the period — new seats added. |
| Scheduled Withdrawals | Children with a withdrawal or last-day date in the period. |
| Net Enrollment Change | New enrollments minus withdrawals — net seats gained or lost. |
| Projected Month-End Enrollment | Projected enrolled headcount at the close of each period. |
| Graduation Outflow | Children aging out to Kindergarten — the seasonal late-summer cliff. |
| Net Growth Rate | Net change as a share of beginning headcount — period growth, normalized for size. |
Used by: Multi-site owner/operators and center directors planning capacity
Frequently asked questions
What is the childcare 'graduation cliff'?
It's the predictable late-summer drop when a cohort of pre-K children ages out and leaves for Kindergarten, usually concentrated in August and September. Because those children are on the roster months in advance, the outflow is forecastable — which is why projecting it (and booking tours to backfill) is one of the most valuable things an operator can do.
How do you project month-end enrollment?
Start with beginning enrollment, add scheduled new starts, then subtract scheduled withdrawals and graduation outflow to get projected month-end. Doing it per site and per age group turns a flat roster into a forward plan that shows the seasonal dip before it happens.
Can I build this on my own enrollment data?
Yes. Export start dates, withdrawal dates, and current roster from Procare, Brightwheel, or HiMama/Lillio and use this as a template — we model it into a Power BI report. The sample uses synthetic data, so there's no real child or family information here.
Build this report on your own data
Clone this Childcare centers template — describe it and we’ll generate sample data so you can try it free, or upload your own export. You get a fully modeled, branded Power BI project that opens in Power BI Desktop.
Use this as a template →